Barely four months plunk between the current administration led by President Umaru Yar’Adua and the promise to deliver 6,000 Mega Watts of electricity to Nigerians. An energia today's reporter takes a look at the current efforts of the government to achieve its promise, the impact of corruption on the project and experts views.

When the good intention of leadership is doubted by its followers, hardly could such leaders connect with the led. Such seems to describe the true position of Nigerians towards the much talk about 6, 000MW the current Federal Government has promised to deliver by the end of December this year. Of course, the fears of the citizens could be justified going by the too many of such promises in the past without coming to reality.

But Federal Government has not mince words over its plans to deliver to Nigerians 6,000MW by the end of the year not minding the doubts of the majority of the citizens. Government officials have been vocal with this assuring that it is a promise government will deliver. President Yar’adua, it would be recalled has not, for a jiffy, hidden his condescension for electric power failure in Nigeria and for the umpteenth time, he has declared intention and strategies to overcome it. The President during his inaugural speech promised within six months declared a state of emergency on power. To assure Nigerians of his sincerity, the President gave electricity generation a pride place in his seven-point agenda. 6, 000 Mega watts, according to him, “would be generated by the end of 2009 while the stake will be raised to 10, 000 MW by 2010.” Two years plus in office, he has drawn back on his promise, but a source from the presidency stated “the President would not rest until this stain is washed off the white garment on his administration even though he did not create the stain”.

No sooner had the President made the pledge than many heads were rolling in the power sector and its affiliate ministries. Former EVC of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), Ibrahim Sulaiman was fired; erstwhile Chairman of the Nigeria Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), Ransome Owan is presently facing trial along side five other commissioners for alleged corruption in the commission.

Latest among the Federal Government moves towards this promise of 6,000MW is the approval of two contracts worth of #4.6billiona naira. According to the Minister of State for Power, Arc Nuhu Somo Wya, who addressed the press after the last Federal Executive council last Wednesday in Abuja, the level of electricity generation and distribution in the country stands at 2,450MW. To the minister, the current relative peace in the Niger Delta region as well as water level that would be at its optimum by the end of this month will be advantage to drive the set target. The apex Executive body believes these contracts among other things, will contribute to its numerous efforts in fulfilling its already publicized MEGAWATTS. Much of this money, in the last 10 years has not translated to power supply for Nigerians.

Allegations of corruption, which has become endemic in the Nigeria society has not only fed fat on the sector, but led to cartels which experts say is the bane of the electricity supply in Nigeria.

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Geometric Power Limited, Prof Barth Nnaji explained recently that a study had shown that about #7.9billion ($57.6) was spent on fuelling generators in the country yearly as a result of lack of electricity supply. The trend, which he said portends a great danger to the nation’s economy. It is pertinent to note that those who have tasted the ice of authority in this country are getting so much concern about the epileptic nature of electricity. Former Head of State, Ernest Shonekan joined the list last week in Lagos when he lamented the stated of electricity and the slow paste of Yardua’s administration even though the president has very good and lofty ideas to reform the power sector. “There is no doubt in my mind that single most daunting challenge that confronts our economy today is the enormous gap between the demand and availability of public economic and social infrastructure services, the most critical of which is electric power. For the prospects of re-energizing our economy, putting Nigerians back to work, scaling up our productivity and thereby repositioning our nation among its peers in the increasingly competitive international; economic order are hugely dependent on how soon and how effectively we are able to resolve the crippling deficits in our power and other critical economic infrastructure”. Delivering a paper at the third Power Solution Conference in Lagos, organized by PowerCap Limited, the Chairman of the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC), an agency saddled with getting Public Private Partnerships for Nigeria’s infrastructural Development, cautioned all ministries that have something to do with award of contracts for Public Private Partnerships (PPP) to adhere strictly to provisions of his commission.

He said: “Over the past ten years the Federal Government has made significant investments in the power sector well in excess of $10 billion, in an effort to make up for the dearth of such investments in the preceding two decades. But as we all now know, the result has been clearly disappointing.”

This disappointment, he continued “is not only due to the poor planning and sequencing of government’s investments that was/ is needed to bridge the gap between the available capacity and what is needed to meet even the current level of demand for power.

“With a population of over 140 million people and access to electricity of just about 40%( according to the Nigerian Energy Commission)-a situation which leaves over 90 million Nigerians without access- the gap that has to be closed is clearly enormous and well beyond the capacity of the treasury.

“The resource gap becomes even more challenging given our national aspiration to position our country among the top 20 economies of the world by the year 2020. Our challenges can be illustrated by statistics from the World Facts Book which showed the following electricity per capita consumption figures:

US (rank 1) 12,672 kWh, Russia (4)-6,969kWh, Egypt (28) - 1052kWh, Algeria (60) - 957kWh, Nigeria (71)-125kWh.”

Maintaining that the current policy direction of the Yar’adua administration to encourage the participation of the private sector in the provision of this vital public infrastructure though Public Private Partnerships (PPP) is a most welcome development. Shonekan said that Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) “have proven track records elsewhere of providing the requisite financing as well as management capacity to regenerate and expand national infrastructure”. To Shonekan, the establishment of the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC) by the President Yardua is a very timely and auspicious decision. He said the invitation for him to chair the commission is, “a great privilege and most welcome responsibility albeit a very daunting one.” Here the caution of the former head of state is very instructive if the current efforts will not go the usual way of corruption in the power sector. Shonekan was very painstaking and clear in his call when he said “we must all commit concerted efforts to addressing the challenges of corruption which, in my view, is the one critical factor that has impeded our country’s economic progress and undermined our capacity to actualise our enormous potentials including the on going 6,000MW promised the current administration.” If Nigeria, as a nation is to create a Public Private Partnerships (PPP) market that would be internationally competitive and that can attract internationally reputable investors, Shonekan advocated that “we must ensure that our processes are transparent and internationally competitive and all players involved in any transactions follow due process. I would like to seize this opportunity to call on all Ministries, Departments and Agencies of government embarking on any PPP projects to adhere strictly to the procedures contained in the National Policy (NP) which are in line with the government’s commitment to transparency and accountability.”

Coming back to the 6,000MW promise, taking into consideration over 140 million Nigeria people most of whom dependent solely on electricity for their daily needs, one doubts if the current administration has weighed if the MEGAWATTS promised can generate effectively power supply for them. But experts have been so definite on this issue saying the promise is not a ruse, but can not serve Nigerians. Hence Federal Government should stop playing politics with electricity and give Nigerians electricity supply. Biodun Ogunleye is the Managing Director, PowerCap Limited, Lagos. “Electricity is a symbol of progress and growth. It is instructive that Nigeria with a population of over 140 million with nearly 50% living in urban areas, has not been able to achieve a peak generation of 10,000MW which should be the target of the Federal Government by the year end, and subsequently increase it as private sector or individuals are allowed to complement. In other developed countries, the electrical grids brought inexpensive, abundant power that affects all facets of living, our grids currently does not fill our homes and businesses with energy. Thus this raises questions about our historical corrupt practices and implementation of smart work steps to ensure our socio-economic potential is realized as a people. We say there is no money. But some where we are already cooking another National Independent Power Project (NIPP) with about $50 billion. Let Nigeria Government use just $25 billion naira as security to investors as counterparts funding for framework. Use the money to secure the energy portfolio. In no time, capital will follow towards there. But if the sector is open to risk as it is now, nobody will invest there. The real problem is the intellectual capitals that will make things happen. Nigeria Government is not been honest with the electricity. We should move forward. The issue is not 6,000MW. We definitely need far beyond that. As for me, not until every Nigerian can switch on the light in his bed room and its stable supply by PHCN. Just forget about the number of MAGAWATTS going on in the presidency. What is the practical work step? What are we doing in practical terms? The lies have traveled far enough in Nigeria; it is time our leaders start saying the truth.”

To encourage private sector participation full in the power sector of Nigeria, Ogunleye explained “in December 2006, Nigeria was at 5,000MW. We need to find out what those guys were doing right at that time. What has happened? Why did we decline so fast? In less than three years we have lost almost 3,000MW in capacity. The new plants we said we are going to do was engulfed in the House of Representatives probes last year. Electricity has the capacity to transform the lives of the tailors, artisans on the street of Nigeria. Government should demonstrate the willingness to make it work.

Another energy expert with over 20 years experience to his credit, Engineer Bai Blyden in a chat with energia magazine noted that Nigeria is a very rich and big country with over 140 million people and a lot of resources that should not be talking about 6,000MW. When, according to him, “the nation should be looking into 100,000MW.” With 100,000MW Bai believes visible transformation would be seen in the nation’s economy. In the expert’s view, “Nigeria can achieve this MAGAWATTS if proper legislation, the political will and resources are channeled to the appropriate quarters. Even though Nigeria has issues with corruption, but Government should just prioritize its developmental needs and it will be done.”

As it stands now, Federal Government efforts towards 6,000MW would be seen as realistic for an average citizen until, as Ogunleye observed, every Nigerian can be comfortable to say electricity is stable and go about doing their businesses without fear of epileptic power supply.